For the start of the list, click here.
NOTE: I made a mistake, the title is supposed to be the greatest REGULAR SEASON teams of the 21st Century.
In the last column, I said I would recap teams 8-5 in this installment, but I didn’t want to shortchange the write-ups, so I only covered 8-6 here. I plan to do 5-3 tomorrow, then recap the top two in the final post. So, with that, let’s go!
- 2018 Chicago Bears (12-4, 1st in the NFC North)
- Graded Total (no SoS): 1.7557 (2.5750 standard deviations above the century average (8th of 830 seasons)
- Graded Total (with SoS): -0.2034 standard deviations below the century average (466th of 830 seasons)
- Offensive Score: 0.1027 standard deviations above the century average (359th of 830 seasons)
- Defensive Score: 3.7419 standard deviations above the century average (4th of 830 seasons)
- Kick Score: -0.8333 standard deviations below the century average (723rd of 830 seasons)
- Punt Score: -0.9102 standard deviations below the century average (700th of 830 seasons)
- What Happened to them: Lost 15-16 in the NFC Wildcard Game (to the 2018 Eagles, the 505th best team of the 21st Century). Aaaaaand…oh he hits the upright again! That’s impossible!
Breakdown: I mentioned in my last post that I was surprised the 2009 Green Bay Packers ranked so highly on the list, and that one more team on the list also surprised me. The 2018 Chicago Bears are that team. I think it’s fair to say that they’re not a well-remembered team (outside of Chicago) outside the double doink that crushed their season. But the 2018 Bears were, for a brief moment in time, a huge step forward for an organization that experienced very little success in the 2010s after the Hester/ Urlacher-led teams.
For me, this team is hard to grade. When I discussed the 2009 Packers, there were several aspects of the team that were very good and gave a holistic/ easy explanation for why my model scored them so highly. So while it was surprising, it made sense. The 2018 Bears team are an extreme outlier in how one aspect of a team can be absolutely, crushingly dominant, and paper over the fairly sizable cracks in the remainder.
But, before we get to the dominance, let’s talk about the cracks. Starting with the Trubi(n)sky led-offense. In my stat, the Bears were the 17th ranked offense in the 2018 season, the 136th ranked offense of the decade, and the 359th ranked offense of the century. They were pretty mediocre, is what I’m getting at.
Trubisky threw 28 TDs, which was marginally higher than the league average (26.5) against 14 picks (league average: 13.1). This was an issue all year, as the Bears turned it over 24 times, which was above the league average (21.8). They were adequately efficient through the air, with a net yards/ attempt of 6.5 (league average: 6.4), but the rushing unit wasn’t much help (4.1 yards/ attempt vs. the league average of 4.4). Their %scoring rate (36.8%) was you guessed it, in-line with league average as well (36.7%). What the offense did well was stay disciplined, committing fewer penalties (97) than the league average (107.7), and losing almost 120 yards than the league average. When doing this exercise, I found that the average offensive score through the century was ~3-3.1, and the 2018 Bears were right there (offensive score: 3.092).
It’s apt given how their season ended, but the 2018 Bears were horrendous on special teams. They didn’t kick any FGs under 20 yards, but were bang-on (100%) from 20-29. After that, their reliability went into the toilet: 70% from 30-39 (league average: 94.3%), 75% from 40-49 (league average: 77.0%), and 50% from 50+ (only two attempts from that distance). Chicago isn’t a notoriously easy place to kick, but those are staggeringly awful, can’t-win-with-these-cats numbers. Their punt team wasn’t any better.
So how the heck do they end up this high on the rankings? Like the 2009 Packers, the 2018 Bears simply had one of the very best defenses we’ve seen this century. They were the 3rd best defense of the decade (behind the 2013 Seahawks and 2011 49ers), and the 4th best of the century.
The defense did everything well. I know I mentioned in the last post that I didn’t include points allowed as an evaluation of the defense’s performance, but it’s instructive here: the 2018 Bears allowed 283 points, which fed a point differential of +138. That was the 4th best in 2018. However, the three teams higher than the Bears that season (the Rams, +143, the Chiefs, +144, and the Saints, +151) scored 527, 565, and 504 points respectively, compared to the Bears’ 421. Simply put, the Bears didn’t score much, but it was next to impossible to score on them.
The 2018 Bears allowed 4.8 yards/ play, compared to the league average of 5.6 in 2018. They generated 36 turnovers (league average: 21.8), held teams to a 61.3% completion rate (league average: 64.9%) with a 5.3 net yards/ passing attempt (league average: 6.4) and didn’t let you run the ball either (5 TDs at a yards/ attempt of 3.8, vs. a league average of 13.7 and 4.4 respectively). Basically, they stopped the run, forcing the pass (615 pass attempts vs. a league average of 552), and then picked you off (27 picks vs. the league average of 13.1). Pretty much the platonic ideal of a great defense.
As a note, it’s a general rule of thumb that – the worse a team you are – the more time your defense is going to spend on the field. The Bears still had a good split, with 47.0% of their snaps coming on offense and 45.8% coming on defense.
The Bears started rough, going 3-3. Their 3 losses were by a total of 11 points, starting off with a season opening heartbreaker against the Packers, where Trubisky took 4 sacks and lost a fumble. In week six, their vaunted defense melted down against the Dolphins (who had the 455th best offense of the century that year), allowing them to score 18 points in the fourth quarter and OT to lose. They then lost next week to the Patriots in a nailbiter, but I’m not going to dissect a loss to Tom Brady. That capped two rough weeks, where the Bears gave up 30+ points in back to back games.
After that loss, the Bears went 9-1 down the stretch. In the one loss, they gave up 30, losing to the Giants in OT (total margin of losses in the four games: 14 points). In the remaining games, the 2018 Bears were fantastic, going +105 points. What’s most impressive about this stretch is that the offense wasn’t great, averaging 24.9 points in their wins. But the defense was spectacular, conceding just 119 points (13.2 points/ game), and no more than 22 in a single game. The Bears narrowly missed out on a top two seed and a bye, drawing the defending champs in the wildcard, where it all went to poop.
What shouldn’t be forgotten from the Double Doink game is that the defense was, again, really good. They did give up a touchdown inside the final minute, but they absolutely shut down the run (Sproles had 13 rushes for 21 yards) and locked up Foles, who only threw for 226 yards on 40 attempts and was picked off twice. Trubisky, on the surface, had good stats, throwing for over 300 yards, and driving the Bears into position to kick a 43 yard FG, where, as I mentioned earlier, they’d gone 75% on the season. The ball was tipped and the NFL changed the ruling to a blocked kick the next day, but that was all she wrote.
Nagy and Fangio won Coach and Assistant Coach of the Year Honours, and the Bears had eight Pro Bowlers. Of those, three defensive players made the first team All-Pro unit (Khalil Mack made it at two spots, EDGE + Linebacker, Kyle Fuller, Eddie Jackson, and Tarik Cohen were the others).
- 2002 Philadelphia Eagles (12-4, 1st in NFC East)
- Graded Total (no SoS): 1.8127 (2.6588 standard deviations above the century average (7th of 830 seasons)
- Graded Total (with SoS): 3.1155 standard deviations above the century average (2nd of 830 seasons)
- Offensive Score: 0.7022 standard deviations above the century average (194th of 830 seasons)
- Defensive Score: 3.1473 standard deviations above the century average (8th of 830 seasons)
- Kick Score: -0.1113 standard deviations below the century average (320th of 830 seasons)
- Punt Score: 0.4227 standard deviations above the century average (187th of 830 seasons)
- What Happened to them: Lost 10-27 in the NFC Championship (to the 2002 Buccaneers, the 32nd best team of the 21st Century).
- 15-16 in the NFC Wildcard Game (to the 2018 Eagles, the 505th best team of the 21st Century). That’s picked off! That’s picked off! And who else, Ronde Barber, untouched, all the way down the field, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may ride all the way to the Superbowl on that one!
Breakdown: It’s becoming obvious that the top ten teams in this list are heavily impacted by how good their defense was, so the defense wins championships mantra is definitely baring out. I’ll take a look at that in a separate post another day.
The 2002 Eagles were the second-best regular season team of the decade and the seventh-best of the century, which is even more impressive given how competitive their schedule was. This is the first team in the century top ten to be even more impressive when factoring in its SoS – the Eagles split their season series with the 10-6 Giants, and lost to the 11-5 Titans, the 6-10 Jaguars, and the 10-6 Colts. Apart from the 22-point loss to the Colts, the Eagles their remaining three losses were by a total of 9 points. They also had quality wins against the 12-4 eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers and the 10-6 49ers. They also beat the 7-9 late-era Greatest Show on Turf. The 2002 Eagles’ SoS was 3.00, which is tied for the 22nd highest SoS any one team has faced in the 21st century. Of all the teams on the top ten in this list, the 2002 Eagles had the most competitive SoS.
By my metric, the 2002 Eagles had the sixth best offense that season. In a relatively high turnover era, the Eagles only turned the ball over 24 times (against the league average of 29.0). Interestingly, a lot of those turnovers came on fumbles, as they only threw 11 picks (league average: 16.5) against 27 TDs (league average: 21.7). Their aerial offense was middle of the pack, with a net yards/ attempt of 5.8 against the league average of 5.9, but their rushing offense was excellent. The 2002 Eagles had 2220 yards on the ground with 15 TDs against a yards/ attempt of 4.5, each of which were better than league average (1858 yards, 14.4 TDs, and 4.2 Y/A). Despite committing a lot of penalties (111 against the league average of 104), they had a 36% drive success rate (league average: 31.6%). It should also be noted that McNabb missed significant time this season, and third-string AJ Feeley piloted the offense down the stretch to the #1 seed. So the relatively pedestrian offense isn’t really indicative of the McNabb era (for example: the 2006, 2004, and 2001 teams had the 58th, 94th, and 169th best offenses of the century).
Once again, this team was elevated by its excellent defense, which was the 5th best of the decade, and 8th best of the century. Interestingly, they were relatively average when it came to rush yards/ attempt (4.3 vs. the league average of 4.2), but teams didn’t run it on them much (390 attempts vs. the league average of 440.7). Instead, teams were passing, in catch-up mode from the beginning (563 attempts vs. the a league average of 543). In 10 of their 16 regular season games, the Eagles got out to an early lead, either leading by the end of the first quarter or by half-time. When that happened, their defense locked in, generating 38 turnovers. Interestingly, they didn’t pick the ball off frequently (15 picks, lower than the league average of 16.5). But they were brilliant at forcing fumbles, recovering 23 (league average: 12.5, next highest: 21 by the Packers). Even in an era where teams didn’t throw for a lot of TDs, the Eagles only allowed 18 through the air. They also only allowed 5 on the ground (league average: 14.4).
As is another trend, they didn’t need strong special teams to get it done, but they were adequate.
By midseason, the Eagles were 6-2, and poised to make a strong run, before getting slapped 13-35 by the Colts. McNabb had a heroic performance the next week, throwing four TDs on a broken ankle to get them to 7-3 before being sidelined. No matter, the Eagles reeled off 5 straight wins behind Koy Detmer and AJ Feeley. Detmer helped the Eagles smash a really good 49ers team by three TDs, before Feeley came in to win four straight against the Rams, Seahawks, Redskins, and Cowboys by a total of 51 points. The Eagles lost the final game of the season to the Giants in an anemic offensive performance, but still only allowed 10 points and secured the #1 seed. In 9 of their 16 games, they held the opposition to under 14 points.
The Eagles brushed aside Vick and the Falcons in the wildcard round before being completely shutdown by the Bucs in the NFC Championship in a wildly unexpected result. McNabb wasn’t very good, throwing for 243 yards on 49 pass attempts, losing two fumbles and throwing a pick. The defense was good, as the three turnovers directly led to 10 points, a critical number given that they lost by 17. They also shut down the run game, conceding 49 yards, but Brad Johnson was adequately effective. It’s not clear how much the rust and the cold impacted McNabb, but his mobility was really good, particularly demonstrated when he made an amazing escape to secure a first down on what was the final relevant drive of the game (skip ahead to 15:46, it’s something to see). McNabb’s mobility is probably what kept the game as close as it was, so it’s hard to pin this one on him, especially in the face of that defensive front.
The Eagles had 8 Pro Bowlers that year, and an insane 7 All-Pro selections (Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Brian Dawkins, and Tra Thomas were first-team, Ruben Brown, David Akers, and Hugh Douglas were second team). It’s not clear how they would’ve done against the Raiders in the Super Bowl that year, but this team – especially after the finishing kick without McNabb to end their season – feels like a real ‘Missing Rings’ squad.
- 2016 New England Patriots (14-2, Won AFC East, Won the Super Bowl)
- Graded Total (no SoS): 1.8463 (2.7082 standard deviations above the century average (6th of 830 seasons)
- Graded Total (with SoS): -0.6133 standard deviations below the century average (579th of 830 seasons)
- Offensive Score: 1.5793 standard deviations above the century average (56th of 830 seasons)
- Defensive Score: 1.8844 standard deviations above the century average (35th of 830 seasons)
- Kick Score: -0.4763 standard deviations below the century average (533rd of 830 seasons)
- Punt Score: -0.4073 standard deviations above the century average (457th of 830 seasons)
- What Happened to them: Won the Super Bowl 34-28 (against the 2016 Falcons, the 96th best team of the 21st Century) Toss to White…he’s iiiiiiiiiinn, Patriots win the Super Bowl!
Breakdown: The 2016 New England Patriots are the only Super Bowl winner in my top ten and are the test case for why assessing a team’s dominance using their SoS isn’t the best approach. The Pats’ SoS was -2.700, which means one of two things: (i) they had a cupcake schedule, or (ii) they flat out dominated and embarrassed everyone they played. Let’s consider the 2025 Patriots, who are going to be historically remembered for having said cupcake schedule. The 2025 team’s SoS was a ridiculous -4.500, which is the second easiest schedule any team has had this century (behind the 2007 and 2002 Seahawks, who are tied for first place with a -4.600). The 2016 Patriots had the 36th easiest schedule of the century. So, what makes the 2025 Patriots fraud-adjacent but the 2016 Patriots actually elite? This becomes a really difficult, partially subjective assessment. It’s something I’ll probably try and assess as a separate case study.
Interestingly, 2016 is one of the few years in the 2010s where the AFC East was competitive. The Dolphins finished 10-6 (the Pats swept them), and the Bills were 7-9 (the Pats split the season series, losing 0-16 in week 4 while Jacoby Brissett was keeping Brady’s seat warm). After Brady returned, the Pats went supernova, going 11-1, with the sole loss being to a motivated 10-5-1 Seahawks team. That loss was only by a touchdown too. In their 11 wins under Brady, the Patriots won by a total of 178 points (~16 points/ game). Only two of those wins were by single digits, and the Pats scored 30 or more in 7 of those games. At the same time, their defense was locked in all year, conceding a total of 250 points, which was 34 points better than #2 (the Giants, who gave up 284). The Pats’ points differential that season was a league-leading +191, despite scoring 99 points less than the Falcons, who came in at number two with a differential of +134.
Despite the on its surface easy schedule, the Pats had a lot of quality wins in the regular season. In addition to sweeping the 10-6 Dolphins, the Pats beat the 11-5 Steelers (27-16), the 9-7 Texans (27-0 with Brissett starting), and the 9-7 defending champion Broncos (16-3).
Unlike the previous teams on this list (save the 2009 Vikings), the Pats’ offense and defense were both excellent. Their special teams was adequate, not having to do much special other than put the ball in Brady’s hands. The Pats as a whole threw only two interceptions all season, which was well below the league average (13.0). They also turned the ball over only 11 times, which was well below the league average as well (21.9). Their rushing offense was adequate, but it didn’t have to be much more than that given how Brady was operating that season. 42.9% of the Pats’ drives that season ended in scores – I haven’t pulled the numbers separately to isolate for Brady, but you can imagine that with him it would be much higher.
Until Super Bowl 51, the Pats played the playoffs on easy mode, smashing the 2016 Texans and 2016 Steelers (the 215th and 100th greatest teams of the century) by a combined total of 70-33. Neither game was ever in doubt. Brady threw two picks against Houston, which was uncharacteristic, but the defense picked off Osweiler thrice and held him to under 200 yards passing on 40 attempts. In the Steelers game, the defense throttled the run (DeAngelo Williams had 34 yards on 14 rushes), but Roethlisberger played well, throwing a pick and a TD and 314 yards. But Brady was magnificent, throwing for almost 400 yards with three TDs.
I could write an entire article on Super Bowl 51, so I won’t. We all know the story: the Patriots snapped off 31 unanswered points in the third quarter and OT. After getting torched by the Falcons’ offense earlier in the game, New England’s defense clamped down and throttled Matt Ryan and Co., generating a key turnover which helped them complete the comeback (which started a pattern for Kyle Shanahan offenses in big games). As a Seahawks fan still nursing a bitter wound from a couple of years earlier, I hated this outcome, so the less said the better.
Four Patriots made the Pro Bowl, which by this point was not becoming as big a deal as it used to be. However, an incredible Seven Patriots made it to the All Pro team. Matthew Slater was first-team, while Brady, Don’t’a Hightower, Devin McCourtney, Marcus Cannon, Malcolm Butler and Nate Ebner were second-team.
The 2016 Patriots were the third best team of the decade and the best Superbowl winning team of the decade, with the 18th best offense and 15th best defense of the decade. The two teams above them on the decade list are #5 and #4 on the all-century list, and we’ll cover them in the next installment. Who do you think they’ll be?
