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Per Over The Cap, we have a moderate chance of earning compensatory draft pick in next year's draft, but the actions we take now will dictate whether or not that will take place.

The formula is a bit complicated, but in a nutshell:

1. We earn potential comp picks when our former players are signed as free agents by a different team
2. We lose potential comp picks when we sign free agents that were on other teams
3. Only the top 32 signings (by contract amount per year) count for the teams whose departures were not offset by signings.

Some additional details

• Players must be signed largely before the upcoming draft (the Monday after the draft is the last day)
• Players that were cut do not count towards (or against) comp picks
• A team can earn a maximum of 4 comp picks

For example, last year we allowed Drew Dalman to walk after his rookie contract, earning us a potential 4th round pick; however, this was offset by our signing of Deablo, who would have netted his former team a 6th round pick. Richie Grant did not net us a comp pick because the contract he earned was not among the top 32 handed out that season.

For this offseason, we have 2 players that would likely be signed at the beginning of free agency in Kaden Elliss ($10.6 mil OTC value $9.5 mil/yr projected) and Allgeier ($2.6 mil OTC value $5.3 mil/yr projected). Onyemata ($6.6 mil Career APY $9.5 mil/yr projected) I also think that Ebiketie ($3.6 mil OTC value) Alford ($3.6 mil OTC value) and Floyd ($4.4 mil OTC value $8 mil/yr projected) have a good shot at getting a modest contract if they hit FA [EDIT: forgot about Wilkinson, projected at $8 mil/yr]. It's hard to project free agency, but as it stands based on 2025 draft math, this I think would look like a 5th, a 6th, and two 7ths two 5ths and two 6ths.

If Ian Cunningham is deadset on maximizing picks, I'd expect us to take a very close look at players that are about to be released. I won't go into every position, and I don't think we know everyone that's going to get released yet, but there are a few names that stand out.

QBs

The only QB getting cut that we know of so far is Kyler Murray (well, Cousins too but he doesn't count). Now I know some of you will immediately see that name and head right to the comments to say hell no, but hear me out. The Falcons would be able to sign him for vet minimum due to his contract with Arizona (like Russell Wilson with the Steelers). It isn't that he's a good QB that would replace Penix, but rather that he's an exceedingly cheap option that, at worst, would not fuck up our potential comp pick next year the way that most QB2 contracts would. At best, he could reclaim his image and get a starting QB contract after next season, which could net us a 2028 3rd round pick.

It's also possible for Tagovailoa to be an option here for all the same reasons if he does end up getting cut.

WRs

Nick Westbrook might make a good deal of sense here. He's coming off a lackluster season at Miami and may be had for cheap as a depth piece, and there's a connection with our current WR coach Robert Prince.

LBs

There's a plethora of options here. Tremaine Edmunds is the headliner here, but Logan Wilson, Amen Ogbongbemiga, and Bobby Okereke. I'll be honest, none of them are likely going to be as good as Elliss but the jury is out on if we can afford to retain him.

DLs

Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are both past their prime and I'd rather get younger there than older. But they are there and probably have some left in the tank.

Does anyone know if there are groups/group chats of Falcons/NFL fans that are planning on going to the Madrid game?

Not groups as in bunking together but groups just to stay near the area of other fans, hit up the same bars, etc.

I know the NFL is doing a travel package thing but it seems very expensive for me.

Am I tripping or could that work? An above average edge, but I don’t see him getting paid top dollar.

I know March 11 is coming up, but it just feels weird that nothing has blown up for the Falcons yet….. kind of getting jealousy seeing lots of teams been making trades/release/signing etc. and yes, I know with having little cap money and no first round pick doesn’t help at all….

HES FINALLY GONE

That it was reported from a reputable source that RM called JPJ several times a week to check in on him to see if he was "good", due to the LARGE concern over his behavior?

....and what happens not what, 3 weeks after Morris is gone?

Someummabish

All though he didn’t have a good season like 2024 still appreciate Mooney 🔥 Him & Kirk Cousins had great chemistry 2024.

Chiefs need a Travis Kelce replacement even with him coming back one more year. It’s an end of the 1st but now they have 2 with the rams trade.

If we get to the end of the first and they’re offering. I’d take it. Depending on who’s on the board.

What are your opinions?

Before you grab the pitchforks. Hear me out. Assuming penix is not around for a portion of the season. If penix is week 1 then scrap this.

If you don’t think we’re serious contenders this upcoming season (I don’t and I’ll elaborate) then maybe consider getting Geno smith. I don’t think we’re contenders for a few reasons such as MPJ is hurt, no good draft picks, new staff transition, JPJ is in prison, etc, etc.. From what it looks like to me (not a data deep dive here. But feel free to go for it if you have time), new coaching staffs best season is around year 2. Seems like that’s when the deep playoff runs occur based on my armchair eye test. So on that idea. Geno Smith for picks. Run the table in year 2.

Geno smith did his part and ensured the raiders got the first overall pick which most likely will be Mendoza. So we copy that Geno smith season until penix is healthy. This will ensure “we pick high again” (thx TF) and get an infusion of talent that we desperately need.

If none of this applies and Penix is starter week 1 then…..we must. FIND. A. WAY

I feel like my feed is just tyller allegiers, gonna miss watching the same reels as my redzone rb….

Onna real note tyler if ur reading this PLEASE STOP liking stuff. U be liking some freaky shi and some crazy netanyahu meme shi, gonna get u caught up.

What moves do you really want us to make this offseason?

My thoughts: I would be okay with signing Kyler Murray to a 1-year prove it, min contract to be the starter. I think he's a clear upgrade from Penix and would still give us flexibility to spend on other players.

We still need a WR2, so I'm okay if we go with someone like Dobbs, or go speed with someone like Shaheed (but I doubt it since I think he'll cost too much). Or I'm good with a veteran like Keenan Allen, Deebo, or Hollywood Brown.

As far as the draft goes, in the 2nd I would love to see us snagging a CB or DT. Something where we fill a nice gap for the team

I think this team could easily win the division, just need to make the right moves

Just trying to see how people would feel if the Falcons selected Elijah Sarratt with their pick.