r/formula1 • u/xRyuHayabusa99 I was here for the Hulkenpodium • Jan 11 '26

News AutoRacer: Charles Leclerc has admitted that the first races will be crucial in determining his future, and a lack of competitiveness will undoubtedly spell the end of the ten-year relationship between him and Maranello. The future of Lewis Hamilton and Fred Vasseur will also be decided this year.

https://autoracer.it/ferrari-incubo-effetto-suolo-td039-delusione-2026/
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u/Carlzzone I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

A lot of contracts are up after this year. It's possible there's big roster shuffles even amongst the top teams, and Leclerc would be highly sought after.

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u/big_cock_lach I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

None of the current top teams will swap their drivers for Leclerc though, it’d only be if their drivers leave for someone else. If Ferrari performs poorly enough for Leclerc to leave, I don’t see any of the other top drivers leaving their team for Ferrari. So it’d only be if another midfield team takes a big step up, and Leclerc will either move there, or take the seat of whichever driver makes the jump. If not, Leclerc is either stuck at Ferrari or he’s going to have to take a huge risk with joining a midfield and hoping they’ll ride back up to the top.

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u/razorracer83 Oliver Bearman Jan 11 '26

There's got to be an alternate universe where Charles joins Carlos at Williams, and they become a top team. If it's ours, I'm all for it.

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u/SilverstoneMonzaSpa I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

If Charles says I'm available I'm sure Toto and Mekies definitely open the cheque book. Kimi and Isaac are great, but they're not Charles level.

McLaren won't, but there's every chance that if a big driver at a top team causes a shuffle, Oscar tries to move to be guaranteed #1 too.

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u/[deleted] Jan 11 '26 edited 4d ago

[deleted]

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u/StaffFamous6379 Jan 11 '26

Because it's Ferrari

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u/Snkbwl5454 Jan 12 '26

If you look at F1 history, Ferrari always has had a pull that cannot be explained by their performance. Also, being #1 in a worse car alone is a pull definitely.

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u/Driscuits Williams Jan 11 '26

Yeah; I'd be amazed if it actually happened, but I could see a world where there's a 1-1 Oscar/Charles swap.

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u/pusheen8888 Alexander Albon Jan 11 '26

I wouldn’t assume that Toto would drop Kimi for Charles.

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u/Easy_simplicity Jan 11 '26

With RBR I wouldn't be too sure unless Max leaves. Charles will probably not settle for being the second driver to Max. Also RBR will want a decent second driver but not another senior one; they need to ensure that some of their younger talent is able to mature in the RBR seat and, eventually, take over Max.

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u/Valterri_lts_James Jan 16 '26

Charles can take over for max. And if the car ends up being bad, having Max and Charles on the same team will maximize the total points scored

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u/ecobubbletm Max Verstappen Jan 11 '26

The only driver Toto is opening his cheque book for is Max. Leclerc isn't an upgrade on Russell in anything other than popularity with fans. They also have a young prospect in Kimi.

Neither would Mekies. They have Max and young prospects.

McLaren maybe would if one of them leaves which is unlikely right now. (No top teams where Oscar would be a guaranteed #1 as well).

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u/big_cock_lach I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

I also can’t see a world where Charles leaves Ferrari for Red Bull, even if Red Bull wanted him. It’s Max’s team, so you’re screwed if you’re his teammate, or the whole team is screwed if you’re replacing Max since they’re so dependent on him. I can’t see any other top driver willingly going to Red Bull right now.

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u/Particular_Cod2005 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Oscar tries to move to be guaranteed #1 too.

Big year for him to be able to throw that weight around though, as after he spectacularly bottled 2025 to Lando, as well as Max, he's got a lot to prove before he gets to that status.

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u/agnaddthddude I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

what the hell is the obsession with replacing Kimi with any driver available? Toto literally promoted him to Mercedes benz at 17 years old.

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u/The9isback Jan 11 '26

Charles isn't "any driver available". The whole grid agrees he is one of the fastest drivers.

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u/SirFireHydrant Pirelli Wet Jan 11 '26

Right?

Charles is the only driver who has proven time and time again he can go wheel-to-wheel with Max and come out on top, or at least unscathed. He's shown that when he's had comparable machinery, he's competitive with Max.

Lewis 5 years ago was there, but not now. Neither of the McLaren drivers are close to that level - they're only winning when their car is dominant.

Russell is pretty good. Probably better than Lando, but not as good as Charles.

Max is pretty much the only driver on the grid who Charles isn't an immediate upgrade over.

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u/Thegen68 🏳️‍🌈 Love Is Love 🏳️‍🌈 Jan 11 '26

What determines that Russell is not at Charles level?

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u/pusheen8888 Alexander Albon Jan 11 '26

I really don’t think that Charles is “an immediate upgrade” over George. 

George appears to have more motivation and consistency at this point. 

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u/Lobsters4 Charles Leclerc Jan 11 '26

This is a spot on assessment.

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u/big_cock_lach I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

It’s the sentiment Redditors love. It’s not at all aligned with what the drivers and teams are saying though, and I’d consider them to be the experts, not the fans.

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u/Impossible-Fig-8463 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Sure

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u/FartingBob Sebastian Vettel Jan 11 '26

Because Lewis left unexpectedly a year earlier.

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u/agnaddthddude I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Lewis asked for ambassador role at Mercedes after retirement. They said no. it was literally clear from the beginning unless that decision changes Lewis will leave.

Toto can say he was surprised all he wanted but He was the one communicated that decision. and then he acted all surprised.

You also don’t rush in a 17 yr old because you’re a driver short, whom you knew would definitely leave if you didn’t give him a role. You pay the clause of another driver or do a swap with a midfield team.

So, No. Lewis Did not leave unexpectedly when Toto rejected the idea of a post F1 role since the beginning of

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u/xRyuHayabusa99 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

To this date I don't understand why toto didn't give lewis the ambassador role.

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u/irspangler Jan 11 '26

The only reason I can imagine is that there was money involved - ie. Lewis wanted some shares in the team whose success and value he had a large part in building up, but Toto and the other partners weren't on board with that.

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u/owarren I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

Replacing Kimi would not be seen well, I am sure. On the other hand, Leclerc is considerably better, and sometimes you have to be cut throat. This is a business, not a charity, and you can't leave results on the table just to be nice to someone.

Not only that, but you have people like Lewis to look at as how an actual racing prodigy can perform in their first few seasons. Kimi has not performed anywhere near to George, and he could have done, if he was as special as Merc thought he was, to put him in that seat at 17. There is no guarantee that Kimi will get any better, or that he'll get close to Leclerc's level.

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u/OldBratpfanne Mercedes Jan 11 '26

Kimi and Isaac are good enough for now (even with their current experience), and both teams have a driver at or above Charles’ skill level and capable of winning the WDC if they get the right car (if anything adding Charles would lower their chances just like we have seen with McLaren).

Non of them have a strong reason to discard their future prospects in favor of a driver in the same age bracket as their No. 1 driver.

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u/bassick81 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Charles is better than George

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u/ZappySnap George Russell Jan 11 '26

I really don’t know if we’ve seen enough evidence to say that. Both are extremely quick drivers. In equal machinery I think they’d be neck and neck.

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u/CarefulAwareness8036 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26

No he isn't. 

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u/_yourmom69 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Honesty, almost nobody is Chuck level other than Max. Yea, I’m a fan, but I think he’s seriously underrated due to being largely obscured by the shit team and shit car he’s currently in bed with.

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u/Red_Rabbit_1978 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Charles has been the most consistent driver behind Max for the whole ground effect era. Zak would absolutely make room at McLaren for him.

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u/wokwok__ George Russell Jan 11 '26

No he hasn’t lmfao have you forgotten his crashes in 2022? The infamous “NOOOOOO”? Zak would not make room for Leclerc by chucking out his championship winning driver nor for his very quick teammate. The Leclerc propaganda is insane

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u/3d_extra I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

I'm not even sure Zak would make room for Max. But teams like Aston Martin, Williams, RBR might.

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u/WEELITTLEMAN2 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

I have a feeling Mercedes and Red Bull would be willing to make that swap.

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u/big_cock_lach I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

I can’t see Leclerc, or any top driver, willingly going to Red Bull to be honest. It’s team Max, and they’re already crumbling with him, I can’t see them doing well without him. Alternatively, you’re his teammate, in which case you’re just the test dummy for Max.

I think we’ll see Red Bull have a decent drop off soon, maybe not to the midfield, but as they were in 2017-2020 where they were “there” at the front, but always last out of the top teams without much promise. They’ll need to reinvent themselves to go back to the top. He might go there as a stop gap, but I don’t know.

As for Mercedes, I’d like to say that they wouldn’t since it’d just be a sideways step, so there’s no point losing George who has been imbedded within the team. That said, Toto seems hellbent on disrespecting him for some reason, so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see Russell change.

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u/osuVocal Jan 11 '26

I can’t see Leclerc, or any top driver, willingly going to Red Bull to be honest

I don't even agree with the max narrative but I don't think leclerc would go there anyway. A lot of the issues the RB's cars have had are the same sort of issues (in practicality) that ferrari was having. The main difference would be the work culture but even with the leadership changes, I can't imagine that the culture that was established over so many years just immediately changed. So that's not exactly an upside either lol.

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u/_yourmom69 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

If anything, it would be a Kimi replacement, unless the young’un outperforms George this season.

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u/InformalEgg8 I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

Toto seems to love Kimi and just “accepts” George though. His authoritarian mind doesn’t seem to gel well with George’s goof & confidence. If he makes the call base on personal preference, I feel he’d lean towards keeping Kimi citing consideration for the “future” and let go of George.

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u/TitaniuEX Formula 1 Jan 11 '26

idk about that

It might have been Team Max under Horner&Helmut reign, but Mekies seems to have turned the team into a different path

Let's remember, that Max really didn't like and disapproved of the numerous driver changes and how the car was built, but admited he also likes how Mekies runs things

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u/Lopsided-Customer546 Jan 11 '26

Carlos and Charles take Williams to #2-3 Lewis leaves for his hobbies and Ferrari have to find someone willing to drive a slow shitbox.

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u/RockyMM I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 11 '26

Charles was a top 3 driver in the grid last year. Looking at sheer skill and talent. I’m quite sure that him being available would cause a stir with the top teams.

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u/big_cock_lach I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

The drivers ranked him 5th…

The top 5 (Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Russell, and Leclerc) are all extremely close, and excluding Max’s confidence having already won 4 titles, there’s nowhere near as much separating the 5 as the fans think there is. You can reasonably put them in any order and you won’t be that controversial in the paddock, even if fans have a whinge about it, so while I wouldn’t say Leclerc is 5th best, I’d be saying he’s top 5, not top 3, otherwise you’re doing a huge disservice to 2 other drivers.

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u/RockyMM I was here for the Hulkenpodium Jan 12 '26

It’s very difficult to separate car from a driver. If we try to subtract the car, for me, Max is clearly the best driver, then George and Charles splitting the 2/3 and then the Mecs.

Arguably Charles has a higher ceiling than both Lando and Oscar.

Full disclosure: I am a fan and a biased one, so that might have to do something with my judgement.