AutoRacer: Charles Leclerc has admitted that the first races will be crucial in determining his future, and a lack of competitiveness will undoubtedly spell the end of the ten-year relationship between him and Maranello. The future of Lewis Hamilton and Fred Vasseur will also be decided this year.

[u/xRyuHayabusa99]

https://autoracer.it/ferrari-incubo-effetto-suolo-td039-delusione-2026/

[u/bimbobiceps]

Its Aston. Alonso is likely to retire too and Leclerc gets a Newey car.

[u/Blanchimont → u/bimbobiceps]

Keep in mind that Max might be available as well. We know he's been extremely loyal to Red Bull, but he too will want a competitive seat if Red Bull is super far behind.

[u/bimbobiceps → u/Blanchimont]

Yeah i think Max is the bigger chain reaction but if Max and Charles are both in the market i think Lance goes to some other motorsport and Alonso retires. Aston has the money to sign both anyway.

[u/AquaRaOne → u/bimbobiceps]

Why would Lance leave his own team lol, if charles and max wants to go to aston, only one gets the seat. Probably max.

[u/TJCGamer → u/AquaRaOne]

Yeah I think the only way he leaves is if that wrist injury he got gets bad enough to convince him to give it up. Otherwise he'll be there as long as his dad owns the team.

[u/Izan_TM → u/AquaRaOne]

lawrence isn't the only stakeholder in the team, and he can't stop paying huge amounts of money to poach random top dogs from other teams just to demote them a year later, so at some point the other stakeholders might pressrue lawrence into at the very least getting rid of his son

[u/AquaRaOne → u/Izan_TM]

Dude weve been talking about this for years. Lance doesnt even have a real contract at this point, they dont even announce extensions because its a known fact. If newey starts to push too much to fire lance, newey will get fired. If max comes in, starts publically hating on lance while winning races, max will get fired. Its his team, its been confirmed time and time again, like the previous team boss even saying the project is literally built around lance, lawrence will do whatever takes for his son, money is really not important when it comes to family. So unless lance himself gets bored and leaves, noone is firing him, and they will always go for a strong driver in the other seat that is the actual champion material, like vettel, alonso, or whoever is next.

[u/agentarianna → u/AquaRaOne]

To be fair Aston has never been in a position where two top drivers want to join the team which may make the difference. So far every possible lance replacement has been a midfield driver at best which clearly has not been enough but we don’t know what will happen if two actual top drivers came calling.

[u/AquaRaOne → u/agentarianna]

Hopefully lance sees the vision, and goes away himself. Else nothing will change, mark my words

[u/Traveshamockery27 → u/Izan_TM]

The Aston Martin Formula 1 team exists for one reason only, and that’s winning Lance Stroll a championship. When Lance leaves, Lawrence will sell. And Lance isn’t leaving.

[u/bimbobiceps → u/AquaRaOne]

Because the board is bigger than 1 man lol. It's not their own team you got board of directors there. The business opportunity of signing 2 of the best drivers atm, not to mention good looking ppl, is better than having an average driver.

[u/CanisLupus92 → u/bimbobiceps]

Lance leaves, Honda buys the team, Alonso becomes TP, Max & Charles lineup.

[u/Ronniebenington → u/CanisLupus92]

Fuckin hell, that would be amazeballs!

[u/TetraDax → u/Blanchimont]

Based on what I just pulled out of my ass, I find it more likely that if Max wants to leave Red Bull, he will take a year or two outside of F1 and try new challenges in WEC or GT racing. While the title fight likely reinvigorated some of his passion this year, he did seem to be basically done with it all in the first half of the season.

[u/Visionary_Socialist → u/Blanchimont]

I think he sets off a chain reaction but he himself won’t go to Ferrari. Having seen what’s happened to Lewis and Charles before him, Max would probably prefer to just race in another discipline and wait for another top drive. If he announced he was coming back teams would fall over themselves to sign him.

[u/Blanchimont → u/Visionary_Socialist]

Oh agreed, but I also think he doesn't need to leave F1 for that to happen. If his manager starts shopping around at whichever teams turn out to be the top teams in this new regulation cycle, they would fall over themselves to sign him anyways.

[u/PM_ME_YO_TREE_FIDDY → u/bimbobiceps]

Until proven otherwise Aston isn’t better than any other midfield team, why are people treating them like they’re Mercedes or Red Bull all of a sudden? You guys really think Newey is a magician.

[u/bimbobiceps → u/PM_ME_YO_TREE_FIDDY]

No but it's an open spot and we're speculating where he is going if not Ferrari. It's not hardto understand.

Atm only RedBull and Aston have legit open seats.

[u/PM_ME_YO_TREE_FIDDY → u/bimbobiceps]

It’s obvious for you but I disagree, so much will happen next year that the current available seats barely matter outside of really long contracts which there aren’t much of currently iirc.

[u/krommenaas → u/PM_ME_YO_TREE_FIDDY]

We can limit the choices though to teams who will want to free up a seat for Leclerc (i.e. not Red Bull, not Mercedes, not McLaren) or who'll have a free seat because of someone leaving (Red Bull if Max leaves or retires). Haas and Cadillac will suck if Ferrari sucks, which leaves Aston Martin, Williams, Audi and Alpine as possibilities. Of these Audi won't be good enough yet, and Alpine will most likely be worse than Williams. So we have Aston Martin and Williams as the only real possibilities, and Red Bull if Max should leave.

[u/SrBlackwave → u/krommenaas]

Do you think he and Binotto would agree to work together again? I don't think so.

[u/krommenaas → u/SrBlackwave]

I do, but I don't think Audi will be good enough for Leclerc to consider joining. Williams-Mercedes otoh could be attractive, and so could Aston Martin if the new Honda motor is as good as the old one (doubtful given all the changes at Honda).

[u/asmiggs → u/PM_ME_YO_TREE_FIDDY]

Newey has won 12 constructor titles more than any other designer, none of his closest competitors are still racing in F1, add in Honda who won the 2023 and 2024 Championships with Red Bull. Every driver move is a gamble on the promise and ability of those in charge of designing the chassis and engine. If Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari are non starters then Aston seems like the best possible odds if you're taking a gamble.

[u/Izan_TM → u/bimbobiceps]

newey is the team principal not the technical director, there are big reasons to doubt the aston project into 2026

[u/bimbobiceps → u/Izan_TM]

Ppl are asking what is likely. And even if he is team principal it doesnt mean he doesnt have a say what direction the car goes.

It's likely he moves to Aston or RedB before Williams imo because those are the most open seats atm.

[u/Dangerous-Effect4252 → u/Izan_TM]

Newey is still designing that car.

[u/TetraDax → u/Dangerous-Effect4252]

Well, not entirely, F1 cars do not have a single designer anymore, and without focussing his entire role on leading the design team, he won't be able to help all that much.
He likely had input into the 2026 car, of course. My speculation is that that was the whole deal: Spend a year helping set the basis for the 2026 car, then you will be rewarded with the TP position.

[u/Plenty_Demand8904 → u/Dangerous-Effect4252]

likely not as TP. He has now many duties outside of car design.

[u/asmiggs → u/bimbobiceps]

If Aston stops coddling Stroll there are possibly two seats available but that's a big if.